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Expert List
Hong Tao Development Research Center of the State Council Jiang Kejun Energy Research Institute NDRC Huang Yonghe China Automotive Technology & Research Center Ren Huanhuan China Automotive Technology & Research Center Wang Hewu China EV100, Tsinghua University Ou Xunmin Tsinghua University Wang Pinxi Beijing Transport Institute Bao Xiang China Automotive Technology & Research Center Cui Hongyang The International Council on Clean Transportation
What is the energy-saving and emission reduction potential for electric vehicles?
· [Jiang Kejun] 1. According to our analysis, a 100% electric car will consume 8 kilowatts per 100 kilometers of electricity by 2025. New energy and renewable energy power generation will account for 50%. 2. Technology is developing rapidly. For example, car companies are now advertising Level 4 self-driving cars. Also, Volvo suggested that within two to three years, we would see fleets, one to two kilometers long on the highway with a driver only in the first car. As long as the equipment is installed in the car to keep up with another device, the cars behind the first car do not require their own drivers. · [Wang Hewu] 1. According to data collected from a B-class electric car (car weight: 2100 kg), used as a private car in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, with total operating mileage of 160,000 km, (40,000 km in each of the four seasons), the analysis of electricity consumption per 100 km shows that in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the northwestern region, the power consumption is between 20 kWh and 28 kWh. The lowest power consumption occurred in the spring and the fall. The highest electricity consumption occurred in winter, due to the use of heating system, by which power consumption increased by 40%. 2. An A-class electric car (car weight: 1600 kg), used as a public taxi in Beijing, has 2,000,000 km of operating data analysis. The results show that in winter, electricity consumption is 20 kWh, 33% higher than that in spring and fall which is 15 kWh. 3. Due to the reduction of carbon emissions from increased reliance on renewable energy sources, the emission per unit of electricity generated by the grid in 2015 was 610 grams. If we consider the 6.5% energy loss during electricity transmission from the power plant to the customer terminal and the 10% loss due to the rapid charge, we can conclude that electric vehicles have a carbon intensity of 720g / kWh. 4. Compared with diesel vehicles, electric vehicles have less carbon emissions if it consumes 3.5 times less electricity than the fuel consumption of diesel vehicles for every 100 km driven. Compared with ICE, electric vehicles have less carbon emissions if it consumes 3.2 times less electricity than the fuel consumption of ICE for every 100 km driven. 5. The emissions of electric vehicles in 2014 and 2015 make up only 55% and 17% of what is allowed under the current National V Emission Standard for petrol vehicles, which is 1.16 grams of pollutants (NOx, HC, CO, PM) per kilometer driven. Even compared with the National VI Emission Standard (0.665 grams per kilometer) , which will be implemented in the future, EV emissions in 2014 and 2015 make up just 88% and 26% of the pollutant cap. Even with 100% thermal power supply, the emissions of EV in 2015 was only 35% of ICE’s emission under National VI emission standard.
· [Hong Tao]
1. It makes no sense to discuss the energy-saving and emission reduction potential from electric and fuel vehicles separately. Rather, it should be understood as a relative and comparative concept. Also, individual vehicle pollution and total emissions should be discussed separately as well. 2. On the one hand, the potential for emission reduction is not constant across all cases. Conditions for potential development, as well as the sharing of costs should be taken into consideration. Electric vehicles are a substitution for and replace conventional vehicles, which means that the key indicators are the customer’s preference on price and use. The competition is a timed race to test which one is more attractive to the customers. The lock-in effect will make the other one impossible to catch up on once missing the time window. 3. On the other hand, the role of administration cannot be ignored. Policies will critically impact both production and consumption. In the short term, however, it will be able to encourage the progress of electric vehicles through policy design. 4. It is worth pointing out that overall emission reduction does not include carbon production in this context, while some normal pollutants present in exhaust -- the primary culprit for air pollution via low-altitude emission -- are included. Therefore, the main goal is to control the concentration of such pollutants in certain area. Due to the low penetration rate of electric vehicles in the market by today, it is more important and urgent to curb emissions from traditional fuel vehicles. · [Ren Huanhuan] The energy saved by the decline in conventional vehicle use will be greater than that saved by using new energy vehicles by 2030. However, the situation will change as the increase of new energy vehicles in the future. · [Ou Xunmin]
1. Electric vehicles have a large potential for carbon emission reduction, especially in comparison with conventional vehicles. In the context of China, such an advantage will be curtailed if the vehicle manufacture process is also included in the evaluation. 2. The potential for energy saving and carbon emission reduction from electric vehicles varies by region, as the proportion of coal used for power generation also varies in different power grids across China. How about conventional vehicle's potential for energy saving and emission reduction? What are the economic effects and difficulties?
· [Huang Yonghe]
1. There are three categories of new energy vehicles in China, i.e. BEV, PHEV, and FCEV. HEV is excluded, which might cause a misunderstanding. According to the prediction by IEA, by 2050 there will remain as much as 60% of total vehicles with inner combustion engines as there were in 2010. 2. e-POWER, which was a new technology created by Japanese developers, has been tested to only consume 2.7 L/100 km, according to the standard of JC08. · [Hong Tao]
1. Energy consumption is still going to be reduced for more than 30% for each individual vehicle. Therefore the total energy saved will be significant. In addition, upgrading the quality of fossil fuels used for conventional heavy trucks is also critical to achieve emission reductions. As to total emissions, a little progress for conventional vehicles will contribute more than any progress for electric vehicles, which are still not widely used. We should also consider that the emission intensity is due to not only the economic effects of gasoline, but also improvements in the quality of the fossil fuels burned. 2. One of the difficulties is how to deal with the existing conventional vehicles, as the rate of car ownership, total emissions, and energy consumption of conventional vehicles are higher than for electric vehicles. For heavy trucks, the quality of fuel consumed has still not improved, so the emission factor is much less than for passenger vehicles. It should also be aware that if the measures on energy saving could benefit car owners as well, the positive benefits on environment can then be sustainable. · [Ren Huanhuan]
1. The energy saving by conventional vehicles is significantly more important when traditional fuel cars are still dominant in the market. 2. Products with large market share have been curtailing energy saving efforts. 3. The energy saving potential for conventional vehicles has not been released yet, according to the ERFC index created by China Automotive Technology & Research Center. 4. Based on a fuel consumption forecast model developed according to the development of technology, conventional vehicles are most likely to reach a level of 5.82L/100 km by 2020, 4.84L/100km by 2025 and 4.25L/100km by 2030, respectively, when cost changes and other updates of the product are taken into consideration. · [Wang Pinxi] There should be two groups of conventional vehicles for energy saving and emission reduction. One for new cars and the other for existing cars. The ultimate goal of energy saving and emission reduction efforts is to optimize the energy structure and the adoption of clean energy. In addition, for vehicles, a more efficient power system and better pollution control system are what we should be looking for.
With the potential of new energy vehicles, does it make sense for traditional vehicles to continue saving energy and reducing emission?
· [Huang Yonghe]
We cannot stop updating energy-saving technology for conventional vehicles. · [Jiang Kejun] It depends on car-producer’s own judgement. · [Hong Tao] We cannot give up updating in the short term. Under current circumstances where the penetration rate of electric vehicles is still low, the energy-saving and emission reduction is more reliable and promising. In the long term, however, with a rising penetration rate for electric cars and optimizing battery structure, the contribution by electric vehicles will be greater. · [Ou Xunmin]
According to simulations, even all new vehicles will be electric by 2030, the total consumption of gasoline will halve. Therefore, conventional cars with internal combustion engine will still be required. · [Bao Xiang]
While the government has made the decision to develop both technologies, the new energy vehicles are more significant. · [Wang Pinxi] New energy vehicles will be the mainstream in the future, as low-carbon/zero-carbon emission will be an ultimate goal for development. But currently, heavy trucks filled with fossil fuels, for example, cannot be replaced by reliable new energy substitute, thus a technology update is still required for energy-saving and emission reduction. · [Cui Hongyang] The ICCT has been conducting some research on cost curves of technology for China, US, and Europe, respectively in recent years. It could be estimated that electric vehicles will not achieve great competitiveness against fuel vehicles in terms of cost by 2025. Without intervention of administration, traditional fuel vehicles will be more popular than electric cars under the same fuel consumption and emission criteria. It is quite meaningful to update conventional vehicles with better energy-saving and emission reduction capabilities. By no means can we abandon such technology, and it is still promising for further development.
Do existing policies affect the potential of conventional vehicles in terms of energy saving and emission reduction? How should policies guide business enterprises?
· [Huang Yonghe] It would be better to stipulate a rough proportion of new energy vehicles, instead of banning conventional vehicles arbitrarily. However, we should also be aware that some local governments will put limits on some traditional fuel vehicles out of resource requirement and for environmental protection. · [Jiang Kejun]
The Dual Credit Policy is a policy with short validity period. It might not be expected to play an important role in the future, but it does signal to state-owned corporations for transformation of business. · [Hong Tao]
1. Current policies will not impact conventional vehicles so much on energy saving and emission reduction, as such implementation has not been great enough for impact the customer’s decisions. Electric vehicles are still contributing little towards energy saving and emission reduction efforts, especially for business heavy trucks. As to control of total emissions, the increase of energy efficiency of conventional vehicles, plus control of emission for each vehicle is still the mainstream. 2. Policies should be made for the benefit of car owners. In addition, the government should also get involved, including monitoring works, initial rights and allocation of interests, mandatory legitimacy, neutrality of accreditation bodies, etc. The key for mechanism design is to ensure the possibility of profit for car owners and to keep validation on allocation of interests scientific and holistic. · [Ren Huanhuan]
1. The linking mechanism of Dual Credit Policy is to stimulate the development of new energy vehicles, while still not influencing fossil fuel consumption targets. 2. The fossil fuel consumption target, which will be set to be 5L/100 km by 2020, cannot be achieved by either energy saving technology on conventional vehicles, or any other sustainable technology only. 3. It should be optional and conditional to set a ban on vehicles with inner combustion engine. I would come up with three ideas for that: First, it needs to be developed step by step and we could set gradual goals in next decades; vehicle type is another factor we should consider, the inner structure of new energy vehicle varies by car type and brand. As new energy vehicles account for little in business vehicle market, it would be unwise to set an arbitrary ban on conventional vehicles. Region is the last one to be taken into consideration, we should take certain regions as pilot areas. · [Bao Xiang] We shall not achieve the goal with 5L/100 km too quickly, instead the rate can drop year by year at a moderate rate. · [Wang Pinxi]
1. Energy revolution of traffic system is an ultimate way for development. The traffic system in the future could be integrated with a smart system and clean energy. 2. Strategies of new energy vehicles should vary by different sub-markets. 3. It will be a systematic problem for development of new energy vehicles, hence infrastructure, business model and detailed management, etc. are required to be implemented holistically. · [Cui Hongyang]
Currently new energy vehicles enjoy the flexibility from two aspects. One is a higher accounting factor in the fuel consumption standard; on the other hand, the Dual Credit Policy allows the car makers to compensate NEV negative credits with CAFC positive credits. Due to a growing number of new energy vehicles produced per year, such benefits will significantly ease pressure on the upgrade of energy saving technology for conventional vehicles. The pace of upgrading in China will be halted, thus great fuel loss will be caused and the global competitiveness of Chinese technology will be curtailed even more if no more policies are released for further management. We are suggesting that more performance-based decisions and policies should be made; additionally, policy guidance in long term is also required, which gives faith to entrepreneurs and investors. |
